Research Center

Vietnam’s headline inflation jumped to 6.43% yoy in Jan 2020. Food inflation pressure is still high but likely to decline in 2Q20F, in our view. We think oil prices will continue to drop due to demand fears related to the…

Headline inflation jumped to +3.52% yoy in Nov (vs. +2.24% yoy in Oct). Pork price hike lifted food inflation to a record high in Nov. Price pressures remain muted on average, at 2.57% yoy in 9M19 vs. 3.59% in the…

Imports fell at a faster pace than exports, lifting the trade surplus to a record high in 10M19. In 10M19, exports from domestic companies gained ground from the ongoing US-China trade war. A favourable current account surplus helped the SBV…

Vietnam GDP growth surged to 7.3% yoy on stronger domestic demand and persistent expansion in manufacturing sector. Manufacturing growth was supported by a recovery in electronics production, despite a smaller increase in refinery output. We upgrade our GDP forecast to…

We expect Vietnam’s GDP growth to remain strong at 6.6-6.7% yoy in 3Q19. We think trade and investment diversion benefits from the US-China trade war could compensate for the negative effects of China’s slowdown, for now. A strong currency could…

A trade deal remains elusive given the re-escalation of the US-China trade war. Vietnam has proven to be a beneficiary of the ongoing trade tensions, with solid export growth and robust registered FDI from China. Risks include: 1) a potential…

Vietnam’s 1Q19 real GDP grew 6.8% yoy, exceeding our expectations but below 1Q18’s 7.5% yoy as agriculture and manufacturing activity moderated. An upswing in domestic manufacturing compensated for the setback in electronics production. We keep our 2019 GDP growth forecast…

Decreasing pork prices could temper the pace of food price inflation. The hike in electricity prices by 8.3% in Mar 2019 could add 0.3% to headline inflation, according to our estimates. CPI should stay manageable as the government administered price…

Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of US$816m in Jan 19 (vs. trade deficit of US$811m in Dec 18). GSO had estimated a US$800m trade deficit in Jan 19. Continued downtrend in smartphone and electronics exports seen in Jan 19. We…

Headline inflation eased to 2.6% yoy in Jan thanks to low oil prices. Manufacturing PMI moderated in Jan due to the Lunar New Year effect. The SBV continued to raise FX reserves, taking advantage of abundant US$ supply and the…