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17/07

Year 2023

Economic update – Envisaging stronger recovery in 2H23

Economics Note 139

Vietnam’s 2Q23 GDP rose 4.1% yoy, a slight improvement from 3.3% yoy growth in 1Q23. We forecast Vietnam’s GDP to increase 7.1% yoy in 2H23, thus lifting 2023 full-year growth rate to 5.5% you. The implementation of fiscal expansion policy…

17/05

Year 2023

Economic update – More supportive measures to come

Economics Note 229

Implemented FDI increased by 3.3% yoy to reach US$1.6bn in Apr 2023 while registered capital surged by 80.5% yoy to US$3.4bn. Vietnam’s CPI cooled down to 2.8% yoy in Apr, the lowest level in 1 year We maintain our GDP…

09/05

Year 2023

Viet Nam money market chartbook – More supportive measures to come

Economics Note 158

The Fed raised its target range for the Federal Funds rate to between 5% and 5.25% and hinted that the current tightening cycle is at an end. The State bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced to buy US$6bn in foreign exchange…

17/04

Year 2023

Economic update – Lower 2023F GDP forecast following the weak 1Q performance

Economics Note 268

Vietnam’s 1Q23 GDP rose 3.3% yoy, the second lowest first-quarter growth since 2011 due to contraction in manufacturing activity. The State bank of Vietnam (SBV) cut its policy rates twice in Mar-23. We revise down our 2023F GDP growth forecast…

05/04

Year 2023

Viet Nam money market chartbook – A turning point in monetary policy

Economics Note 196

The Fed raised its target range for the Federal Funds rate to between 4.75% and 5.0% and left the door open for another rate hike. The State bank of Vietnam (SBV) cut its policy rates twice in Mar-23. Government bonds…

14/03

Year 2023

Viet Nam money market chartbook – Declining interest rates, easing FX pressure

Economics Note 175

The market now forecasts the FED terminal rate at 5-5.25%. That means there are 2 more rate hikes in Mar (0.25 % pts) and May (0.25 % pts). Lower pressure on VND exchange rate as DXY dropped after SVB crash.…

14/03

Year 2023

Economic update – Improving manufacturing, easing FX pressure

Economics Note 166

PMI climb above 50-pt threshold in Feb 23 for the first time since Nov 22, signaling a possibility of manufacturing recovery. CPI cooled down to 4.3% yoy in Feb 23 (vs. 4.9% yoy in Jan 23) while deposit rates peaked…

13/02

Year 2023

Economic update – Easing pressure on monetary market

Economics Note 223

CPI increased by 4.9% yoy in Jan 23, the highest level since Mar 20. Yields on Vietnam’s 5-year and 10-year government bonds fell sharply by 42 and 38 basis points, respectively, in Jan 2023. According to our estimates, the SBV…

10/01

Year 2023

Economic update – 2023 could be a year with two halves

Economics Note 309

Vietnam’s GDP growth decelerated to 5.9% yoy in 4Q22 as exports slumped and reopening boost faded, bringing 2022 pace to 8.0% yoy. We downgrade our GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 6.2% (+/- 0.3% pts) from a previous forecast of…

19/10

Year 2022

Economic update – Emerging uncertainties

Economics Note 404

GDP rose 13.7% yoy in 3Q22, thus lifting the 9-month GDP growth rate to 8.8% yoy, the strongest 9-month growth rate since 2011. We see growing headwinds to mount pressure on SBV to tighten further. We forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth…