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Year 2021

Economic update – Poised for a recovery ahead

Economics Note 681

We think the sharp decline in 3Q21 makes the economic growth hard to capture the previous forecast of 3.9% for 2021. Vietnam is poised for a gradual recovery since 1Q22 driven by picking up vaccination, resuming exports and manufacturing expansion…


Year 2021

Economic update – Feeling the impact of Delta variant

Economics Note 565

In Aug, Vietnam’s PMI dropped to 40.2pts, the lowest level since May 2020. For the first time since May 2020, export value dropped 6.0% mom and 5.4% yoy to about US$26.2bn in Aug 2021. Inflation climbed to 2.8% yoy in…


Year 2021

Economic Update – Lower growth outlook as the evolution of pandemic

Economics Note 561

Since mid-Jun, Vietnam has experienced a sharp pick-up in infection cases and strict social distancing protocols across nation. We revised down 2021F average inflation to 2.4% due to lower domestic demand and falling in prices of essential services We lowered…


Year 2021

Economic Update – COVID-19’s impacts lingered

Economics Note 738

The manufacturing sector remained strong despite the 4th COVID-19 outbreak. PMI remained above the 50-pt level at 53.1pts in May. The service sector saw contraction due to social-distancing measurements. Total retail sales of consumer good and service slid 3.1% mom…


Year 2021

Economic Update – Uncertainties emerge

Economics Note 494

Manufacturing sector expanded further with Apr PMI climbing to 54.7pts, the highest level since Nov 2018 Service sector experienced stronger recovery in Apr with gross retail sales of consumer goods and services increasing 2.3% mom (+30.9% yoy). We see some…


Year 2021

Economic Update – Envisaging a stronger recovery in 2Q21F

Economics Note 636

Vietnam’s 1Q21 GDP grew 4.5% yoy which slightly better than the growth rate of 3.7% seen in 1Q20 amid the third COVID-19 infection. Average CPI edged up 0.3% yoy in 1Q21, the lowest 1Q level in 20 years, however headline…


Year 2021

Economic Update – Flying through the clouds

Economics Note 655

Manufacturing sector expanded further with Feb PMI climbing to 51.6pts. Total export-import turnover reached US$95.8bn (+25.5% yoy) in the first two months of 2021 despite the shortage of empty containers in Asia. Inflationary pressure bounced back with CPI rising 0.7%…


Year 2021

Economic Update – Cautiously optimistic

Economics Note 381

Gross retail sales of consumer goods and services rose 3.6% mom (+6.4% yoy) in Jan 2021. Vietnam’s headline inflation declined 1.0% yoy in Jan 2021. Jan exports rose an estimated 50.5% yoy to US$27.7bn, the highest growth seen in the…


Year 2021

Economic Update – Moving into 2021 with confidence

Economics Note 396

Vietnam’s real GDP grew by 2.9% in 2020, thanks to a strong recovery in 4Q20 GDP growth (+4.5% yoy). CPI met our expectations, averaging 3.2% yoy in 2020. We expect Vietnam’s GDP to grow 7.1% in 2021, matching pre-pandemic growth…


Year 2020

Economics Update – Vietnam dong likely to strengthen in 2021F

Economics Note 599

As per data on 30 Oct, the Vietnam central bank-set exchange rate for VND/US$ rose only 0.2% YTD. We revise up FY20-22F EPS forecast by 7.4%-12.9% on higher loan growth and NIM expansion. Please follow this link for the full…