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Year 2021

Economic Update – Envisaging a stronger recovery in 2Q21F

Economics Note 580

Vietnam’s 1Q21 GDP grew 4.5% yoy which slightly better than the growth rate of 3.7% seen in 1Q20 amid the third COVID-19 infection. Average CPI edged up 0.3% yoy in 1Q21, the lowest 1Q level in 20 years, however headline…


Year 2021

Economic Update – Flying through the clouds

Economics Note 589

Manufacturing sector expanded further with Feb PMI climbing to 51.6pts. Total export-import turnover reached US$95.8bn (+25.5% yoy) in the first two months of 2021 despite the shortage of empty containers in Asia. Inflationary pressure bounced back with CPI rising 0.7%…


Year 2021

Economic Update – Cautiously optimistic

Economics Note 330

Gross retail sales of consumer goods and services rose 3.6% mom (+6.4% yoy) in Jan 2021. Vietnam’s headline inflation declined 1.0% yoy in Jan 2021. Jan exports rose an estimated 50.5% yoy to US$27.7bn, the highest growth seen in the…


Year 2021

Economic Update – Moving into 2021 with confidence

Economics Note 347

Vietnam’s real GDP grew by 2.9% in 2020, thanks to a strong recovery in 4Q20 GDP growth (+4.5% yoy). CPI met our expectations, averaging 3.2% yoy in 2020. We expect Vietnam’s GDP to grow 7.1% in 2021, matching pre-pandemic growth…


Year 2020

Economics Update – Vietnam dong likely to strengthen in 2021F

Economics Note 540

As per data on 30 Oct, the Vietnam central bank-set exchange rate for VND/US$ rose only 0.2% YTD. We revise up FY20-22F EPS forecast by 7.4%-12.9% on higher loan growth and NIM expansion. Please follow this link for the full…


Year 2020

Economic Update – Relatively swift recovery expected in 4Q20F

Economics Note 301

Vietnam’s 3Q20 GDP rose 2.6% yoy, the lowest third-quarter growth in a decade due to the impact of Covid-19. Real GDP grew 2.1% yoy in 9M20. Vietnam’s Sep headline inflation slowed to 3.0% yoy (vs. 3.2% yoy in Aug). We…


Year 2020

Economic Update – Public investment in the spotlight

Economics Note 333

Vietnam’s services and industrial sectors weakened mom in Aug 2020 as the second wave of Covid-19 spreads across the country. Vietnam’s headline inflation slowed to 0.1% mom in Aug 2020 (vs. 0.4% mom in Jul). The trade surplus further widened…


Year 2020

Economic Update – Facing new growth challenges

Economics Note 304

We cut our 2020F GDP growth forecast by 1% pt to +3.5% in our baseline scenario due to growing uncertainties over the latest Covid-19 outbreak. Our 2020F average inflation rate is kept unchanged at 3.2% yoy. We expect to see…


Year 2020

Economic Update – Solid steps towards a “new normal”

Economics Note 295

Vietnam’s 2Q20 GDP edged up 0.4% yoy, the slowest second quarter growth rate in a decade. Real GDP grew 1.8% yoy in 1H20. The service sector recovered faster than we expected, with total value of retail sales and services rising…


Year 2020

Economic Update – Reviving the economy

Economics Note 303

The service and industrial sectors saw a rebound in May after Vietnam’s government relaxed social distancing rules from 23 Apr onwards. Headline inflation eased to 2.4% yoy in May. The overnight rate in late May was 0.3%, the lowest level… Protection Status