Strategy Note
02/06
Year 2023
Market Strategy June 2023 – Ready to take the opportunity
VN-INDEX closed at 1,064.6pts (+1.5% mtd, +5.7% ytd) on May 25 2023. We believe the market’s rally was supported by: A series of supportive policies issued by the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) recently have solved some…
11/05
Year 2023
1Q23 Earnings review – A weak start for 2023
1Q23 market aggregate earnings slumped by 18.1% yoy, improved from that of -31.9% yoy growth in 4Q22. Among companies under our coverage that have reported 1Q23 results, we see more disappointments than positive surprises as 46% missed our estimates. 1Q23…
05/05
Year 2023
Market Strategy May 2023 – Look for growth engines
VN-INDEX closed at 1,041.4pts (-2,2% mtd, +3,4% ytd) on April 24 2023. We believe that the decrease could come from the following reasons: (1) Investor sentiment was cautious due to 1Q23 disappointing earnings results, (2) Vietnam’s PMI fell to 47.7pts…
31/03
Year 2023
Market Strategy April 2023 – Stay defensive, stay selective
Strategy Note 106
VN-INDEX closed at 1,052.3 pts (+2.7% mtd, +4.5% ytd) in Mar-23. We believe that the increase could come from the following reasons: (1) FED has delivered a less hawkish message on monetary policy amid global banking turmoil, (2) SBV cut…
30/03
Year 2023
ETF Monitor – EIB likely to be excluded from VNDiamond
We estimate EIB might be excluded in this Apr review since its foreign ownership ratio does not match with requirements. Based on our estimate, TCB, GMD and MBB might be among top buy, while ACB and PNJ are likely in…
15/03
Year 2023
Commentary about Resolution No.33 & Decision 313 & 314 – Supportive measures have come
Strategy Note 101
The Government released Resolution No.33 on 11 Mar 2023 to reduce liquidity shortages for the property sector in the near term. Following up, the SBV issued two Decisions No. 313 and 314 adjusting down key policy rates. We believe the…
08/03
Year 2023
ETF Monitor – Tailwinds from new foreign ETFs inflows
Together with the capital raising of Fubon ETF and the change in Vietnam portion of V.N.M ETF, we expect foreign inflows of c.VND6,100bn in the next couple of weeks. Based on our estimate, HPG, VCB, VNM might be among top…
01/03
Year 2023
Market Strategy March 2023 – Stay defensive, stay selective
VN-INDEX closed at 1,054.28 pts (-5.1% mtd, +4.7% ytd) in Feb-23. We believe that the correction of the market can come from the following reasons (1) Rising concerns about the extension of Fed rate hike following the US inflation was…
15/02
Year 2023
Vietnam money market chartbook – Interest rates tend to peak out in 1Q23
Strategy Note 104
Fed scaled back to a quarter-percentage-point rate increase in the last policy meeting (Feb 1, 2023) after a year of larger hikes. According to our estimates, the SBV bought about US$3.6bn in foreign exchange reserves since the beginning of 2023.…
06/02
Year 2023
4Q22 Earnings review – Not a strong finale
Strategy Note 189
4Q22 market aggregate earnings plummeted by 30.4% yoy, the biggest drop since the Covid-19. FY22 market earnings grew modestly 7.1% yoy, much lower than our forecast of 16.7% yoy for FY22. 4Q22 market earnings growth was surprisingly disappointed Based on…