Economics Note
14/09
Year 2022
Economic update – Faster ascent in the 3Q22
Economics Note 350
Following the easing inflation pressure, we downgrade Vietnam’s average CPI forecast for 2022F to 3.2% (+/- 0.2%) from 3.5%. We expect 3Q22 GDP to hasten 13.1% yoy on low base last year. We raise Vietnam’ GDP growth forecast for 2022F…
12/08
Year 2022
Economic update – Focus on macroeconomic stability
Economics Note 451
Vietnam’s CPI decelerate to 3.1% yoy in July 2022 (vs. 3.4% in the previous month), thanks to a decline of domestic petrol price. Both manufacturing and export delivered moderate growth in July. We maintain our 2022F GDP growth forecast at…
15/07
Year 2022
Economic update – We envisage a stronger GDP growth in 2H22
Economics Note 402
GDP rose 7.7% yoy in 2Q22, the strongest 2Q growth rate since 2011. Vietnam’s headline inflation climbed to 3.4% yoy in June 2022 (vs. 2.49% in May 2022), in line with our forecast. We keep our 2022F GDP growth forecast…
16/05
Year 2022
Economic update – All about the FED
Economics Note 393
After twice hikes of 75 bps, another 175 bps of hikes are now reflected for the rest of the year, pushing the Fed rate at about 2.5% by end-2022. We see five major impacts of the Fed’s tightening of monetary…
12/05
Year 2022
Economic update – Domestic recovery to cushion external challenges
Economics Note 368
Service and industrial sectors are picking up in April. Headline CPI edged up to 2.6% yoy in Apr 2022 (vs. 1.9% yoy in 1Q22). The Fed’s tightening of monetary policy has a broad impact on Vietnam’s economy, including exports, monetary…
13/04
Year 2022
Economic update – Lower GDP forecast as growing external headwinds
Economics Note 447
Vietnam’s 1Q22 GDP grew 5.0% yoy (vs. 4.7% yoy in 1Q21) on the back of strong exports and industrial sector. Headline CPI stabilized at 1.9% yoy in 1Q22 (vs. 1.9% yoy in 4Q21), but inflation surge is imminent due to…
15/03
Year 2022
Economic update – Indirect risks are broad
Economics Note 475
We see minimal direct impact from Russia-Ukraine crisis on Vietnam’s economy but indirect risks are increasing. We keep our 1Q22F and 2022F GDP growth forecast at 5.5% and 7.5%, respectively, fueled by recovery of domestic demand and FDI inflows. Vietnam’s…
16/02
Year 2022
Economic update – An encouraging Jan to herald a good year
Economics Note 485
Vietnam’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 53.7pts in Jan 2022, marking the highest level since Apr 21. We saw significant improvement in tourism and transportation thanks to higher vaccination rate and new adaption measures to the pandemic. We expect…
12/01
Year 2022
Economic update – The growth gather steam since 1Q22
Economics Note 656
Vietnam’s real GDP grew 2.6% in 2021, slightly stronger than our forecast. Macroeconomic stability has been solidified in 2021 with well-managed inflation, higher foreign exchange reserves and stable exchange rates. We expect Vietnam’s GDP to grow 7.5% in 2022, fueled…
08/11
Year 2021
Economic update – Things gradually falling into place
Economics Note 669
Service sector softly recovered in Oct with gross retail sales of consumer goods and services rose 18.1% mom PMI climbed above 50 point for the 1st time since Jun 2021, indicating the resume of manufacturing activities in Oct 2021 Vietnam’s…