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Year 2023

Economic update – 2023 could be a year with two halves

Economics Note 408

Vietnam’s GDP growth decelerated to 5.9% yoy in 4Q22 as exports slumped and reopening boost faded, bringing 2022 pace to 8.0% yoy. We downgrade our GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 6.2% (+/- 0.3% pts) from a previous forecast of…


Year 2022

Economic update – Emerging uncertainties

Economics Note 483

GDP rose 13.7% yoy in 3Q22, thus lifting the 9-month GDP growth rate to 8.8% yoy, the strongest 9-month growth rate since 2011. We see growing headwinds to mount pressure on SBV to tighten further. We forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth…


Year 2022

Economic update – Faster ascent in the 3Q22

Economics Note 364

Following the easing inflation pressure, we downgrade Vietnam’s average CPI forecast for 2022F to 3.2% (+/- 0.2%) from 3.5%. We expect 3Q22 GDP to hasten 13.1% yoy on low base last year. We raise Vietnam’ GDP growth forecast for 2022F…


Year 2022

Economic update – Focus on macroeconomic stability

Economics Note 423

Vietnam’s CPI decelerate to 3.1% yoy in July 2022 (vs. 3.4% in the previous month), thanks to a decline of domestic petrol price. Both manufacturing and export delivered moderate growth in July. We maintain our 2022F GDP growth forecast at…


Year 2022

Economic update – We envisage a stronger GDP growth in 2H22

Economics Note 441

GDP rose 7.7% yoy in 2Q22, the strongest 2Q growth rate since 2011. Vietnam’s headline inflation climbed to 3.4% yoy in June 2022 (vs. 2.49% in May 2022), in line with our forecast. We keep our 2022F GDP growth forecast…


Year 2022

Economic update – All about the FED

Economics Note 421

After twice hikes of 75 bps, another 175 bps of hikes are now reflected for the rest of the year, pushing the Fed rate at about 2.5% by end-2022. We see five major impacts of the Fed’s tightening of monetary…


Year 2022

Economic update – Domestic recovery to cushion external challenges

Economics Note 409

Service and industrial sectors are picking up in April. Headline CPI edged up to 2.6% yoy in Apr 2022 (vs. 1.9% yoy in 1Q22). The Fed’s tightening of monetary policy has a broad impact on Vietnam’s economy, including exports, monetary…


Year 2022

Economic update – Lower GDP forecast as growing external headwinds

Economics Note 464

Vietnam’s 1Q22 GDP grew 5.0% yoy (vs. 4.7% yoy in 1Q21) on the back of strong exports and industrial sector. Headline CPI stabilized at 1.9% yoy in 1Q22 (vs. 1.9% yoy in 4Q21), but inflation surge is imminent due to…


Year 2022

Economic update – Indirect risks are broad

Economics Note 501

We see minimal direct impact from Russia-Ukraine crisis on Vietnam’s economy but indirect risks are increasing. We keep our 1Q22F and 2022F GDP growth forecast at 5.5% and 7.5%, respectively, fueled by recovery of domestic demand and FDI inflows. Vietnam’s…


Year 2022

Economic update – An encouraging Jan to herald a good year

Economics Note 514

Vietnam’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 53.7pts in Jan 2022, marking the highest level since Apr 21. We saw significant improvement in tourism and transportation thanks to higher vaccination rate and new adaption measures to the pandemic. We expect… Protection Status