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Year 2022

Economic update – Lower GDP forecast as growing external headwinds

Economics Note 299

Vietnam’s 1Q22 GDP grew 5.0% yoy (vs. 4.7% yoy in 1Q21) on the back of strong exports and industrial sector. Headline CPI stabilized at 1.9% yoy in 1Q22 (vs. 1.9% yoy in 4Q21), but inflation surge is imminent due to…


Year 2022

Economic update – Indirect risks are broad

Economics Note 312

We see minimal direct impact from Russia-Ukraine crisis on Vietnam’s economy but indirect risks are increasing. We keep our 1Q22F and 2022F GDP growth forecast at 5.5% and 7.5%, respectively, fueled by recovery of domestic demand and FDI inflows. Vietnam’s…


Year 2022

Economic update – An encouraging Jan to herald a good year

Economics Note 333

Vietnam’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 53.7pts in Jan 2022, marking the highest level since Apr 21. We saw significant improvement in tourism and transportation thanks to higher vaccination rate and new adaption measures to the pandemic. We expect…


Year 2022

Economic update – The growth gather steam since 1Q22

Economics Note 492

Vietnam’s real GDP grew 2.6% in 2021, slightly stronger than our forecast. Macroeconomic stability has been solidified in 2021 with well-managed inflation, higher foreign exchange reserves and stable exchange rates. We expect Vietnam’s GDP to grow 7.5% in 2022, fueled…


Year 2021

Economic update – Things gradually falling into place

Economics Note 519

Service sector softly recovered in Oct with gross retail sales of consumer goods and services rose 18.1% mom PMI climbed above 50 point for the 1st time since Jun 2021, indicating the resume of manufacturing activities in Oct 2021 Vietnam’s…


Year 2021

Economic update – Poised for a recovery ahead

Economics Note 626

We think the sharp decline in 3Q21 makes the economic growth hard to capture the previous forecast of 3.9% for 2021. Vietnam is poised for a gradual recovery since 1Q22 driven by picking up vaccination, resuming exports and manufacturing expansion…


Year 2021

Economic update – Feeling the impact of Delta variant

Economics Note 500

In Aug, Vietnam’s PMI dropped to 40.2pts, the lowest level since May 2020. For the first time since May 2020, export value dropped 6.0% mom and 5.4% yoy to about US$26.2bn in Aug 2021. Inflation climbed to 2.8% yoy in…


Year 2021

Economic Update – Lower growth outlook as the evolution of pandemic

Economics Note 496

Since mid-Jun, Vietnam has experienced a sharp pick-up in infection cases and strict social distancing protocols across nation. We revised down 2021F average inflation to 2.4% due to lower domestic demand and falling in prices of essential services We lowered…


Year 2021

Economic Update – COVID-19’s impacts lingered

Economics Note 666

The manufacturing sector remained strong despite the 4th COVID-19 outbreak. PMI remained above the 50-pt level at 53.1pts in May. The service sector saw contraction due to social-distancing measurements. Total retail sales of consumer good and service slid 3.1% mom…


Year 2021

Economic Update – Uncertainties emerge

Economics Note 432

Manufacturing sector expanded further with Apr PMI climbing to 54.7pts, the highest level since Nov 2018 Service sector experienced stronger recovery in Apr with gross retail sales of consumer goods and services increasing 2.3% mom (+30.9% yoy). We see some… Protection Status