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Mini Macro Note – VIETNAM SEES ROBUST AND BROAD-BASED GDP GROWTH IN 1Q2018

Economics Note 30/03/2018    163

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  • Vietnam’s GSO released strong Q1 GDP growth figures yesterday; manufacturing the leader while agriculture and mining
    sectors are clearly in recovery mode. Vietnam’s 1Q18 GDP grew by 7.38%, the fastest pace seen in 10 years.
  • Agriculture, seafood and forestry also picked up in 1Q (+4.05% yoy vs 2.09% in 1Q17), the strongest growth in 13 years, which was likely supported by rice and seafood exports with the former benefiting from a normalization of weather patterns.
  • Export growth remained resilient in 1Q (+22.0% yoy), with sustained growth in FDI companies’ exports (+23.2% yoy)
  • Based on 1Q18 economic performance, we are confident about the country’s 2018 economic outlook.
  • The rising contribution of net trade to GDP does, however, make GDP growth quite vulnerable to a possible global trade spat.

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