PNJ – Recovering supply fuels sales growth – Update Report

• We maintain our ADD recommendation, with 59% upside.
• We decreased our TP by 23% to VND102,300, mostly due to the impact of the 170 million bonus share issuance.

Financial Highlights

• In 1Q26, PNJ reported total revenue of VND17tn (USD651bn), a surge of 79% YoY, primarily driven by a 322% YoY surge in 24K gold bars sales.
• PNJ recorded all-time high profit of VND1.5tn (USD57mn) in 1Q26, a 116.4% YoY increase, driven by booming retail sales.
• We expect PNJ to reach 2Q26 NPAT of VND600bn (USD23mn) and NPM of 6%.

Investment Thesis

New repurchase policy enhances material supply for jewelry sales

Under the new repurchase policy, PNJ can manage inventory and gold-price exposure more effectively, limiting losses from sharp movements in raw material costs. This is particularly important as SJC gold prices recently dropped 20% in 2Q26. Thus, the new policy of repurchasing at the material’s market price allows PNJ to maintain stable positive jewelry margins.

24k gold sales may remain strong in 2H26.

Over the past two years, limited availability of gold material has constrained production capacity across the industry, preventing PNJ from fully capturing demand. Easing supply and production conditions since Decree 232 would allow the company to expand inventory, launch new collections, and improve product availability across its network of 430 stores nationwide.
Given that jewelry retail contributes ~60–70% of PNJ’s revenue but more than 90% of gross profit thanks to higher GPM, stronger growth in this segment could have a disproportionately positive impact on earnings. In addition, a higher contribution from branded and premium jewelry products should further support gross margin expansion.

PNJ’s valuation remains attractive relative to its historical average level

The stock is currently trading at around 9.4x forward P/E, representing a discount of ~37% to its five-year historical average valuation (15x) and below jewelry peers (14.4x). Meanwhile, the company’s long-term growth drivers remain intact, including rising disposable income, increasing urbanization, premiumization trends, and continued market share gains from the fragmented traditional jewelry market. A combination of stronger profitability and valuation normalization could provide meaningful upside to the stock price in 2026.

Read the full report: Here