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Economic Update – COVID-19 outbreak weighs on GDP growth

Economics Note 03/04/2020    169


  • Vietnam’s 1Q20 real GDP grew 3.8% yoy, the slowest 1Q growth pace in a decade, as all sectors are affected by the COVID-19 outbreak.
  • Vietnam’s headline inflation eased to 4.9% yoy in Mar 2020 (vs. 5.4% in Feb) as transportation costs fell 2.62% yoy, thanks to low oil prices.
  • We expect Vietnam’s GDP growth to stay low in 2Q20F before a strong rebound in 2H20F.
  • We cut our 2020 GDP growth forecast to 5.0%, from 6.0% previously.

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