Economic Update – Envisaging a stronger recovery in 2Q21F

• Vietnam’s 1Q21 GDP grew 4.5% yoy which slightly better than the growth rate of 3.7% seen in 1Q20 amid the third COVID-19 infection.
• Average CPI edged up 0.3% yoy in 1Q21, the lowest 1Q level in 20 years, however headline inflation is expected to spike in 2Q21F.
• We trim our 2021F GDP growth to 6.7% yoy in baseline scenario (from previous forecast of 7.1%).

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