Market strategy June 2026 – Market Reaccumulation Ahead Of Large Capital Inflows

Market Performance: Vingroup stocks drove VN-Index to a new all-time high

• Driven by a strong rally in Vingroup-related stocks, the VN-Index maintained its positive momentum during the first half of May 2026 and reached a new all-time high. However, profit-taking pressure at elevated valuation levels, coupled with cautious investor sentiment, led to a market correction in the latter half of the month.
• Market performance in May reflected investors’ cautious stance amid external uncertainties. Global inflationary pressures resurfaced as oil prices remained elevated, while stronger-than-expected US CPI data for April reinforced expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates higher for longer.
• Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to weigh on market sentiment. Foreign investors remained net sellers, offloading more than VND14.4tn (USD549.6mn) during May 2026, further pressuring domestic investor confidence.

Market Outlook: A market reaccumulation ahead of large capital inflows

From a technical perspective combined with fund flow dynamics, we outline two scenarios for the market in June 2026:

• Base-case consolidation scenario (70%): The VN-Index may consolidate within the 1,820–1,920 range during June, allowing the market to absorb profit-taking pressure and build momentum for the next upward leg. A more decisive breakout may emerge in 3Q26, supported by additional catalysts such as the return of foreign capital inflows, easing inflationary pressures, and improving liquidity conditions within the banking system.
• Breakout scenario (30%): The VN-Index still has the potential to break above its historical peak as early as June if large-cap stocks continue to provide market leadership. However, this scenario is likely to lack broad-based participation, resulting in a continuation of the “index up, stocks down” phenomenon, where gains in the benchmark index do not fully reflect the performance of the majority of listed stocks.
• Constructive medium-term outlook: We maintain a constructive view on the market over the coming months, supported by key structural drivers including sustained economic growth backed by selectively expansionary fiscal policy, along with expectations of returning foreign inflows following Vietnam’s FTSE Russell upgrade to Secondary Emerging Market status. In addition, solid corporate earnings growth should continue to underpin market performance. Under our base-case scenario, we expect the VN-Index to move toward the 1,970 level by end-2026, implying a target P/E of 14.0x, representing a discount of around 10% to the 10-year historical average to reflect uncertainty risks related to the Middle East conflict.
• Our conviction stocks for June include NLG and VPB.

Read the full report: HERE