MWG – Exceeding 2026 guidance with high profit growth – Update report

We reiterate our ADD rating and raise our target price by 9% to VND125,700/share, implying 72.6% upside from the current price of VND71,700. The higher TP reflects our positive view on four key catalysts: (1) resilient ICT/CE demand supported by the back-to-school season; (2) the iPhone 18 series lineup, supporting 2H26 upgrade demand; (3) effective BHX expansion, particularly in Northern Vietnam, driving sustained revenue growth; and (4) MWG’s attractive valuation.

Financial Highlights

• 2Q26 NPAT surged 102% YoY to a new peak of VND3.4tn (USD129mn) thanks to strong consumption of laptops, iPhones, TV and air conditioners.
• 1H26 NPAT surged 91% YoY to VND6.1tn (USD231.9mn), completed 61% of our forecast and 66% full-year guidance.
• We expect 3Q26 net profit to be VND2.6tn (USD99mn), rising 46% YoY, and 2026 NPAT at VND11.4tn (USD434mn), increasing 61% YoY, surpassing year-beginning guidance by 24%.

Investment Thesis

Laptop prices remain high amid back-to-school and year-end spending

Back-to-school demand lifted 3Q26 laptop and iPad sales, while AI-driven memory shortages kept device prices elevated. We expect this trend to persist until new Samsung and SK Hynix capacity eases supply in 2H27. We forecast TGDD revenue of +29.2%/+23.6%/+23.4% YoY in 3Q26/2026F/2027F and DMX revenue of +22%/+27% in 3Q26/2026F. However, costlier merchandise may narrow DMX GPM from 21.1% in 2Q26 to 19.5% in 2H26 and 18.0% in 2027.

Strong iPhone 18 Pro demand supports 2H26 sales growth

The iPhone 18 series, launched on September 9, drew 182,600 pre-orders at MWG. The Pro Max accounted for nearly 70%, lifting ASP to around VND42mn (USD1,600) and implying about VND7.7tn (USD293mn) in revenue to be recognised in 2H26. We therefore forecast 20% YoY SSS growth for both TGDD and DMX in 2H26.

BHX expands into the North with a longer growth runway

BHX continues to expand rapidly, adding over 1,000 stores in 8M26 and bringing its network to 3,612 outlets, while revenue reached VND40.1tn (USD1.5bn) (+32% YoY). The North offers a longer-term growth runway, with 67% of consumers still shopping at traditional markets, despite intensifying competition from WCM. Notably, all stores opened in 8M26 achieved positive operating profit, highlighting the scalability of BHX’s operating model. We forecast 2026F revenue of VND62tn (USD2.4bn) (+32% YoY), with net profit rising 160% to VND1.9tn (USD72mn).

MWG is trading below its average historical level of 20.2x

MWG trades at 10.8x trailing P/E, below its two-year average of 20.2x and the peer average of 14.8x. That is in line with the ICT retailer median of 10.4x and below grocery retailers at 19.4x. Given the catalysts above (memory-driven pricing, iPhone 18 demand and BHX’s northern expansion), we believe MWG could re-rate to a P/E of 16.4x within 12 months.

Read the full report: Here