HPG – Only minor headwinds from US-China trade war

• Tariffs shield Vietnam’s long steel industry from the fall out of an US-China trade war.
• The US-China trade war, to some extent, could benefit HPG in the medium term.
• HPG will remain competitive vs. imported Chinese steel even after Vietnam’s import tariffs expire in 2020F, according to our calculations.
• HPG’s significant upcoming capacity expansion can be absorbed gradually by the incremental growth in demand, in our view.
• Maintain Add as HPG’s stock price is a victim of souring sentiment on steel stocks but is better protected from trade-related shocks than most global peers.

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